A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
